One report theorizes that Verizon may get an off-cycle refresh every year. What that would mean is that Apple would refresh the iPhone annually, in June / July, and then refresh the Verizon iPhone in January / February, off-cycle.
Another option, proposed in the same report, is that Verizon sticks with the iPhone 4, skipping the iPhone 5, for perhaps an 18 month period while awaiting a more mature Verizon LTE network, and a nascent AT&T LTE network.
We see both of those scenarios as doubtful, however. Verizon very much loses in that way, with most of those people who like to be on top of new techology already thinking that a six-month old smartphone is obsolete. After all, it's that sort of "need to upgrade" thinking that the Best Buy "Buy Back" program is built on.
The report notes that "Apple has to balance meeting international demands" with Verizon demand. Although many forget it, there are plenty of CDMA networks around the globe. In fact, even during the press conference Verizon was asked --- and answered --- the CDMA iPhone is not exclusive to Verizon. There is yet no reason to believe that other CDMA networks will not receive their own iPhones.
Finally, since Verizon has confirmed that a CDMA iPad is coming, we predict that the two companies are going to become closer, and that would best be served, at least for Verizon, by the company and any other CDMA carriers receiving iPhone updates at the same time as AT&T and other GSM carriers do.
As far as LTE goes, it will definitely be more stable this summer. We're not sure that a Verizon iPhone update in the summer would carry LTE, but instead of an LTE upgrade Verizon might just add International roaming capability, then do an LTE refresh in 2012.
Refreshing the Verizon iPhone too soon is likely to tick off those who adopt the Verizon iPhone now. Of course, an 18 month wait for a new Verizon iPhone seems unrealistic in an industry where months equal a lifetime. An off-cycle refresh seems unlikely as well, as that would keep Verizon behind AT&T in terms of the latest and greatest iPhone version.
Our guess is that, despite the possible obstacles, with a CDMA iPad coming, Apple will release a CDMA iPhone and GSM iPhone at the same time, later this summer. We'd also think Apple will work with other CDMA carriers as well: Bernstein Research’s Toni Sacconaghi, believes that Apple could boost the iPhone’s potential market by as much as 25 percent if it agreed to sell CDMA iPhones at five global carriers: Verizon (done), Sprint, China Telecom, KDDI in Japan, and LG Telecom in S. Korea.
